With thousands of props being offered every week in the NFL, this is the market most prone to posting soft lines. Combining fantasy football knowledge with regular football knowledge is a great way to help spot market inefficiencies we can take advantage of.
Here are some of my favorite player props listed on BetMGM for Week 1:
Joe Burrow over 34.5 pass attempts
Burrow hit this number in eight of the nine full games he played last season and the Vikings’ weakness on defense is their secondary. I expect Minnesota to score early and often against a bad Bengals defense, which means Burrow will have to try and keep up.
Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards
Cincinnati’s other big Joe is a three-down back now with Giovani Bernard gone. The Bengals ran a lot of screens in preseason play and Mixon is dangerous when he gets in space.
Jefferson is a stone cold stud and was targeted on nearly a quarter of his routes last season. Bengals cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is about to get worked over in a major way.
Kyle Pitts over 46.5 receiving yards
“But, Greg, it takes years for rookie tight ends to learn the position and adjust to the league.” Stop it. The Falcons didn’t spend the fourth pick on Pitts to keep him in-line and block. Arthur Smith is going to move him all over the field and use him like the mismatch receiving machine that he is. Pitts is in a position to dominate an atrocious Eagles secondary that’s probably going to be without their best defensive back.
The reigning Heisman winner is the Eagles’ alpha receiver and I think he’ll end up with well over 100 targets this season. The only reason this number is so low is because Smith is a rookie.
A.J. Brown over 67.5 receiving yards and Julio Jones over 61.5 receiving yards
This is such a smash spot for the Titans’ duo. They’ll be matched up against fourth-round rookie Marco Wilson and Robert Alford, who hasn’t played football in two years. Ryan Tannehill is going to light up this secondary in what should be a barn-burner of a game.
First of all, Hardman has to get on the field. Then he has to deal with an elite secondary unit. Hardman has only recorded four or more catches in six of his 32 games.
Marquez Callaway over 3.5 receptions and over 45.5 receiving yards
Jameis Winston showed a strong rapport with Callaway during the preseason and there aren’t many other options right now with Michael Thomas on the PUP list and Tre’Quan Smith on injured reserve.
He ran for 74 or more yards in his final seven games of last season, including the playoffs. The Seahawks are most vulnerable up front and I expect Frank Reich and the Colts to lean on Taylor while easing in Carson Wentz.
Allen Robinson under 5.5 receptions and under 63.5 receiving yards
Jalen Ramsey will be shadowing Robinson and that could mean a long night for the Bears receiver. Ramsey gave up less than 25 receiving yards in 11 games last season and allows just a 46.7% catch rate.
Stats provided by PFF, SharpFootball, 4for4.com, and pro football reference
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